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Monday, December 9, 2013

12/9/13

Today was definitely interesting. What looked like a run to new highs turned out to be minor gains.

There is a channel from the November 7th lows on the daily S&P 500 chart that looks pretty solid right now. It's offering support around 1787 for tomorrow, and I see little chance of testing that. The flag on the hourly offers short term support at 1806.30, and breaking 1809.20 will break the flag's upper trend line - seems feasible.

The way we tested and failed the 1811/12 zone today has me a bit worried, as it's shaping up to be a pretty solid point of resistance. Tomorrow, the high around 1813 lines up almost perfectly with the middle speedline when drawn from November 7th. Holding above these levels tomorrow should really increase the likelihood of a run to the 1840/50 level.

The H&S pattern I've been looking for lately may be canceled, but we are still at risk for a double top if this new trend doesn't continue.

Presidents of the St. Louis and Dallas Federal Reserve banks both appeared in news articles today talking about reducing the amount of liquidity the Fed is injecting into the markets through QE. In recent months, this sort of thing as increased bearish tendencies and is something to be mindful of. However, with a drop to 7% for unemployment, the various voices of the Fed can at least point to a popular, non-granular piece of data for whatever it's worth.

S&P 500 Daily Chart


S&P 500 4 Hour Chart


S&P 500 Hourly Chart


The aforementioned articles:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/12/09/bullard-hints-at-early-taper/3922293/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/10/us-usa-fed-fisher-idUSBRE9B810020131210

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