1/1/2014

In the long term, I'm convinced the market is overbought. Monthly and weekly charts for the S&P, Dow Industrial, and Dow Transportation are scraping along the upper Bollinger Band (set at 2 standard deviation), with upward momentum lagging.

The thrust seen at year end might produce some more gains this month though, and while we should be due for quite a large retracement as we approach the top of the giant monthly channel on the S&P, the rising wedges on the indexes have all been broken and may provide support. I'm going to suggest more gains in the next couple days and then some very minor relaxation before the rest of this month's upward movement towards 1870.

Also, since I primarily trade options, there's a lot more open interest on SPY calls in the coming months. However irrational it may be, there seems to be a serious amount of fearless greed out there, which could be a warning itself. The VIX has been rising with the market the last several days of the year.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

S&P 500 Monthly Chart